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NEW DELHI: Even as the conflict in Ukraine continues, Russia is actively expanding its destabilizing campaigns globally, employing unconventional warfare tactics to assert its influence and challenge its adversaries.
A recent report from Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) outlines the multifaceted approach Russia is taking to extend its geopolitical reach, which includes covert operations in Europe, the deployment of mercenaries across Africa, and outreach to Muslim communities in Central Asia and Europe.
The RUSI report illuminates the dual nature of Russia’s military strategy. “It is the conventional threat of escalation that deters retaliation against unconventional activity, thereby expanding the scope of what Russia can get away with,” the report states. This strategy not only focuses on direct military engagements, as seen in Ukraine, but also on “gray zone” warfare, which includes a range of covert and indirect methods to destabilize regions and divert international attention and resources, a report in Insider said.
According to RUSI, destabilizing Africa and shifting Western focus is deemed by the Kremlin as a strategic move that will ease its military campaigns in Ukraine. The tools of Russian influence extend to fostering political polarization, manipulating social factions, and potentially resorting to violence to escalate crises to the point of destabilization, the Insider report said.
Historical attempts by Russian intelligence to influence political outcomes include the failed coup in Montenegro in 2016, intended to prevent the country from joining Nato, and efforts in 2022 to incite protests in Moldova. These actions illustrate Russia’s long-standing tactic of attempting to sway political dynamics in favor of pro-Russian sentiments.
Despite these ambitious efforts, Russia’s track record has been checkered with failures, attributed to poor operational security and an overestimation of their influence within target countries. This has led to the exposure and disruption of their plans by domestic security services.
In response to setbacks, Russia has reportedly revamped its unconventional warfare capabilities, now leveraging the Russian mafia and foreign students in Russia to build a support network for its agents in Europe. This shift comes as Russia seeks to create crises beyond its borders, particularly in the Balkans, where it sees opportunities to disrupt Western influence.
In Africa and the Middle East, Russia’s state-sponsored mercenaries, notably from groups like Wagner, have been active in supporting dictators and warlords, furthering Moscow’s interests against rival factions and Islamic rebels. Following the death of Wagner Group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia has continued to offer what RUSI describes as a “regime survival package” to its clients, deepening their dependency on Russian support.
RUSI’s analysis suggests that while countering Russian disinformation is crucial, more significant is disrupting Russia’s ability to manipulate political elites and its logistical support for these operations. This requires a strategic, intelligence-driven approach to avoid the pitfalls of overreaction and maintain a focus on concrete threats rather than speculative dangers, the Inside report said.
A recent report from Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) outlines the multifaceted approach Russia is taking to extend its geopolitical reach, which includes covert operations in Europe, the deployment of mercenaries across Africa, and outreach to Muslim communities in Central Asia and Europe.
The RUSI report illuminates the dual nature of Russia’s military strategy. “It is the conventional threat of escalation that deters retaliation against unconventional activity, thereby expanding the scope of what Russia can get away with,” the report states. This strategy not only focuses on direct military engagements, as seen in Ukraine, but also on “gray zone” warfare, which includes a range of covert and indirect methods to destabilize regions and divert international attention and resources, a report in Insider said.
According to RUSI, destabilizing Africa and shifting Western focus is deemed by the Kremlin as a strategic move that will ease its military campaigns in Ukraine. The tools of Russian influence extend to fostering political polarization, manipulating social factions, and potentially resorting to violence to escalate crises to the point of destabilization, the Insider report said.
Historical attempts by Russian intelligence to influence political outcomes include the failed coup in Montenegro in 2016, intended to prevent the country from joining Nato, and efforts in 2022 to incite protests in Moldova. These actions illustrate Russia’s long-standing tactic of attempting to sway political dynamics in favor of pro-Russian sentiments.
Despite these ambitious efforts, Russia’s track record has been checkered with failures, attributed to poor operational security and an overestimation of their influence within target countries. This has led to the exposure and disruption of their plans by domestic security services.
In response to setbacks, Russia has reportedly revamped its unconventional warfare capabilities, now leveraging the Russian mafia and foreign students in Russia to build a support network for its agents in Europe. This shift comes as Russia seeks to create crises beyond its borders, particularly in the Balkans, where it sees opportunities to disrupt Western influence.
In Africa and the Middle East, Russia’s state-sponsored mercenaries, notably from groups like Wagner, have been active in supporting dictators and warlords, furthering Moscow’s interests against rival factions and Islamic rebels. Following the death of Wagner Group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia has continued to offer what RUSI describes as a “regime survival package” to its clients, deepening their dependency on Russian support.
RUSI’s analysis suggests that while countering Russian disinformation is crucial, more significant is disrupting Russia’s ability to manipulate political elites and its logistical support for these operations. This requires a strategic, intelligence-driven approach to avoid the pitfalls of overreaction and maintain a focus on concrete threats rather than speculative dangers, the Inside report said.
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