Apple’s China woes are reportedly not going away. iPhone sales have been declining, raising concerns for the company’s future prospects in the region. But there may be a silver lining.
According to a report from investment firm JP Morgan, Apple’s iPhone sales are declining in China at an accelerating rate. However, the firm believes that Apple’s services may be able to offset this decline.Services such as Apple TV+ and iCloud may balance out the decline. JP Morgan predicts that Apple could earn more revenue from its services and that they expect China’s smartphone sales to recover eventually.
Wedbush’s investor note also anticipates a bounce back from the declining iPhone sales in China, fueled by increased services revenue, AI, and the upcoming iPhone 16 range.

Declining iPhone Sales in China

Analysts from investment firm JP Morgan, citing data from Counterpoint Research, reveal a concerning trend in Apple’s iPhone sales in China. The decline observed during the first six weeks of 2024 surpasses that of its competitors, indicating a challenging period for the tech giant. Although JP Morgan characterises the pace of decline as moderate, it signals a reversal of fortune for Apple in the Chinese market.

Long-term recovery anticipated

Despite the current downturn, analysts foresee a potential recovery for Apple in the long term. They emphasise the role of Apple’s service offerings, such as Apple TV+ and iCloud, in bolstering the company’s income amidst declining hardware sales.
While the exact timeline for China’s smartphone market recovery remains uncertain, JP Morgan maintains its price target of $215 for Apple stock, underscoring confidence in the company’s resilience.

Impact of lower shipments to China

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF Securities predicts a drop in Apple’s iPhone shipments for 2024 compared to the previous year, partly attributing it to reduced shipments to China. Kuo highlights a significant decline in Apple’s orders for key semiconductor components, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards smartphones with generative AI features and foldable designs. Additionally, the resurgence of competitors like Huawei poses further challenges to Apple’s market share in China.

Challenges amidst competition

Apple‘s struggles in China are underscored by its declining market position, with local sellers such as Huawei surpassing iPhone sales. Counterpoint Research data reveals Apple has dropped to fourth place in China’s smartphone market during the initial weeks of 2024. The decline is attributed to stiff competition from resurgent rivals and aggressive pricing strategies adopted by other smartphone manufacturers.

Apple looking to change gears

As Apple navigates through declining iPhone sales and increasing competition in China, analysts emphasise the company’s resilience and potential for recovery. While challenges persist, particularly in the face of intensified competition and shifting consumer preferences, Apple’s focus on services and upcoming product releases offers hope for a turnaround.
Despite the challenges, industry analysts express cautious optimism about Apple’s prospects in China and its potential for recovery.