Iowa caucuses: Former US President Donald Trump is off to a great start in his ambitions to return to the White House as he secured a victory in Iowa’s leadoff presidential caucuses on Monday. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis remain Trump’s most prominent rivals for the 2024 presidential run-off, as they aim for a second-place finish that would give them some momentum in future races.

The Associated Press declared Trump the winner of the Iowa caucuses based on an analysis of early returns as well as results of AP VoteCast, a survey of voters who planned to caucus on Monday night. Initial results from eight counties showed Trump with far more than half of the total votes counted as of 8.31 pm ET (7:01 am IST), with the rest of the field trailing far behind.

Furthermore, Edison Research projections also showed Trump’s dominance in the Iowa contest as well as the Republican party, as DeSantis and Haley seek to emerge as the chief alternative to the former president, reported Reuters.

AP VoteCast is a survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to take part in Monday’s Republican caucuses in Iowa. The survey shows that Trump was favoured by 58 per cent voters intending to caucus, compared to 18 per cent for DeSantis and 13 per cent for Nikki Haley.

So far, Trump is significantly outperforming his second-place 2016 caucus finish, when he received 24 per cent of the vote, compared to 28 per cent for Ted Cruz. A commanding victory for the ex-president would boost his chances of taking on his rival Joe Biden in November’s general election, despite four criminal cases against him.

High stakes in Iowa

The caucuses in Iowa are very important for the 2024 presidential elections as they are an early indicator of which candidates may lead the race for their party’s nomination and set the tone for the rest of the primary elections. The caucuses are more complicated than regular primary elections, where participants engage in discussions, negotiations and multiple rounds of voting.

The feeling of the high stakes of the caucuses was palpable in the state as people raved life-threatening temperatures to gather at more than 1,600 schools, community centers and other sites for the state’s first-in-the-nation caucus. The wind chill in parts of the state had been forecast to reach minus 45 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 43 degrees Celsius) on Monday, according to the National Weather Service.

Things seem to be going well for Trump as very few believe he would be unfit for president even if he is convicted of a crime. Both DeSantis and Haley were aiming for a strong second-place finish that could demonstrate they might prevent Trump’s inexorable march toward the nomination. 

DeSantis in particular had wagered his campaign on Iowa’s 99 counties and would face pressure to end his presidential campaign if he comes third. Polls show him far behind Trump and Haley in the more moderate Northeastern state of New Hampshire, where Republicans will choose their nominee eight days from now.

At a diner in Des Moines, Haley predicted that other candidates will be forced to drop out in the weeks to come. “This will be a two-person race with me and Donald Trump,” she told her supporters.

Meanwhile, Iowa Democrats did not vote on Monday for their presidential nominees because the party has reshuffled its nominating calendar to put states with more diverse populations ahead of Iowa this year. They will cast their ballots by mail, with the results to be released in March.

Have Iowa caucuses determined the presidential candidate?

Trump showed significant strength among urban, small-town and rural communities, according to AP VoteCast. He also performed well with evangelical Christians and those without a college degree. And a majority of caucusgoers said that they identify with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement.

However, Iowa is an uneven predictor of who will ultimately lead Republicans into the general election. Former President George W Bush’s victory in 2000 was the last time a Republican candidate won in Iowa and went on to become the party’s standard-bearer.

The winner of Iowa’s Republican caucuses did not go on to secure the nomination in the last three competitive contests in 2008, 2012 and 2016. However, Trump’s legal challenges appear to have done little damage to his reputation as the charges are seen through a political lens.

(with inputs from agencies)

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